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Hot take: the JMT permits jumped to 4,000 a day and I still got shut out 5 times
I was poking around the recreation.gov stats page last week and saw the John Muir Trail lottery pulls about 4,000 applications a day during the February window for only 45 daily spots. I put in for 5 different start dates out of Happy Isles near Yosemite and got nothing, not even a waitlist email. Thinking about flipping to a NOBO route from Whitney Portal instead. Has anyone actually scored a SOBO permit on their first try, or is the move just to keep rolling the dice every year?
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uma6855d ago
4,000 applications for 45 spots? That is a 1 in 89 shot per day, so five dates still leaves you with terrible odds. I got lucky and scored a SOBO out of Happy Isles on my third year trying, but my buddy is still rolling the dice after six. The lottery is just brutal, so flipping to NOBO from Whitney might honestly be the smarter play.
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